#geopolitical risk

On May 2025, a prediction market contract for 'Iranian airspace closed by Jul...

Four dead. That’s the number that broke my morning coffee buzz in Zurich. A...

Trucks of Pakistani mangoes rotting at the Iran border. This is not a supply...

The global equity markets rallied in unison on the session of July 22, 2023,...

Hook The market says 3.6%. That’s the implied probability of Iran’s regime...

Iran activated its Isfahan air defenses this morning. The announcement came...

The Polymarket contract on 'full airspace closure over Jordan/Israel' sits at...

The People’s Bank of China just extended its gold buying streak to 20 months....

26.5%. That is the probability of full Iranian airspace closure before July 3...

The prediction market contract ticked over at 28.5% on July 31. A probability...

Polymarket just priced a 30% probability that the US and Iran sign a...

Over the past 48 hours, Bitcoin's price has climbed 3.2%, breaking its sidewa...

The number stares back at you: 44.5%. That is the probability the Iran blocka...

At 10:47 AM UTC, the U.S. embassy in Manama disseminated an unusually specifi...

Truth is not given, it is verified. An IRGC claim. A US base in Syria. And...

The code doesn’t lie. But politicians? They trade in probability, not proofs....

The data shows a single binary contract on Ethereum: Polymarket’s “Gulf War b...

At 10:47 AM Kuwait City time, the Kuwait News Agency published a single...

Over the past forty-eight hours, a peculiar pattern emerged across on-chain...

The crypto market’s silent alarm just rang. On May 23, Iran’s official...

Over the past 72 hours, Bitcoin decoupled from traditional risk assets—rising...

Hook Within 7 hours of the US Central Command’s precision strikes on Iran’s...

Two dead. One precision strike. A city burning. US military just hit Abadan,...

Hook Over the past 72 hours, satellite imagery confirmed by my cross-border...

The mint button was a lever, not a purchase. But this time, the lever is...

April 5, 2025. 14:32 UTC. A cluster of wallets, previously silent for 14...

A crypto media outlet publishes a report: Iran strikes the US Navy Fifth Flee...

Over the past 48 hours, a protocol lost 30% of its open interest in BTC...

Bitcoin dropped 3% in 12 minutes. The news hit: Iran voided a US memorandum a...